The Economic Impact of COVID-19 Crisis Based on Complex Network Evolution Model

The Covid-19 crisis impacts the economy with non-equilibrium and non-linear shocks. This paper builds a trading network model based on the theory of trading economics. Using the network model, the evolutionary procedure of the economic depression triggered by the shocks are researched. The study shows that under the impact of shocks, small and medium-sized trading agents with weak profitability will first experience cash flow crisis. Then the crisis contagion is formed in upstream and downstream through the trading network. The credit reduction caused by the business deterioration will make the interest rate in the economy increase and promote each other with the bankruptcy of trading entities. Eventually, it leads to the feedback loop in liquidity crisis and debt crisis, which accelerates the bankruptcy of enterprises and possibly causing a debt crisis in the banking sector. It is found that after the shock, the economic recovery may take three patterns: stable recovery, slow recession and secondary crisis. Finally, the paper proposes relevant policy recommendations to reduce the impact of the crisis. © 2023 Editorial Borad of Complex Systems and Complexity Science. All rights reserved.

Covid-19 and investment-cash flow sensitivity: A cross-country analysis.

This study investigates investment-cash flow sensitivity during the COVID-19 economic crisis. Using an international sample of publicly listed firms, we find that the sensitivity of capital expenditures to cash flows is significantly reduced during the crisis. When we split the sample into strongly and weakly affected countries, we find that firms in countries affected more seriously by COVID-19 exhibit lower investment responsiveness to cash flows. We further find that investment-cash flow sensitivity is diminished when government aid is greater, firms have more cash on hand, and investment opportunities decline. Our results survive a host of robustness checks. This study contributes to the discussion on the impact of COVID-19 on corporate policies within an international framework.

Modern pandemic crises and R&D investment

This study investigates the impact of crises caused by pandemics on firms' R&D investments. We explore these associations by utilizing a comprehensive cross-country sample of 261,959 firm-year observations collected from 39 countries during five modern health crises (SARS in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, MERS in 2012, Ebola in 2012, and Zika in 2016). The results indicate that pandemics have a positive and significant impact on R&D investment. Furthermore, we show that private firms in civil-law countries were more likely to adopt conservative financial policies than those in common-law countries. We conclude that the difference between the legal origins of private firms influences the impact on R&D investment. Moreover, it promotes conservative policies to reduce private firms' R&D investment in countries with civil law.

COVID-19 and earnings management: a comparison between Chinese family and non-family enterprises

PurposeThe main objective of this study is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on earnings management practices in China using a sample of family and non-family enterprises. More specifically, this study aims to examine whether the COVID-19 pandemic causes variation in Chinese listed family and non-family enterprises' operations, as reflected in the level of real earnings management (REM).Design/methodology/approachThis study uses three standardised REM indicators, namely, the abnormal level of cash flows from operations, the abnormal level of production costs and the abnormal level of discretionary expenses. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions are applied to compare the earnings management of Chinese family and non-family enterprises during the pre-pandemic period (2017–2019) and the pandemic period (2020).Findings The authors find that Chinese listed non-family enterprises tend to participate in more REM activities than family enterprises before the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the opposite is true during the pandemic. The authors also find that COVID-19 has increased the involvement of family and non-family enterprises in REM activities.Originality/valueThe results of previous studies based on REM using Chinese listed firms may not be applicable under the new social background of COVID-19. As the period after the COVID-19 outbreak is relatively recent, Chinese researchers have yet to study it comprehensively. The present study is amongst the first empirical attempts investigating the effect of a pandemic financial reporting by investigating whether and how the burst of the COVID-19 crisis affected financial reporting through the earnings management practices of listed Chinese family and non-family enterprises. Such information is crucial because it can provide analysis for all stakeholders to make better decisions.

OIL PRICE AND VIETNAM STOCK MARKET IN THE ERA OF THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK

The interactive association between oil prices and stock market has increasingly captured the attention of researchers. Especially, how does the relationship between oil prices and stock market varies during COVID-19 pandemic? The study's aim is to investigate the time-varying causal effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the link between the oil prices and Vietnam stock market using the wavelet approach. Daily data about oil prices Vietnam stock prices and returns covers the period of ten years from January 2011 to December 2021 will be gathered, processed and analyzed to examine the influence of pre, first and second waves of COVID-19 pandemic on the relationship between oil prices and stock market.

Hospital and Health System Finances: Interview with Health Care Expert Lisa Goldstein

Hospitals continue to experience negative margins, with hospital expenses decreasing slightly since the start of the pandemic, but not enough to address impacted volumes and revenues. As a result, issues regarding hospital and health system debt and financial sustainability weigh heavily on health care admini - strators. Hospital finances, and specifically, the management of bonds and debt, are of vital concern, particularly in light of the elimination of CARES Act funding and the forthcoming expiration of the federal Public Health Emergency COVID-19 plan. In this article and accompanying podcast episode, Nursing Economics Editorial Board Member Dr. Therese Fitzpatrick talks with leading health care expert Lisa Goldstein, MPA, about the rising pressures to maintain financial sustainability as hospital margins react to post-pandemic admissions and related adjustments.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry's economic performance: Evidence from Portugal.

This paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economic and financial performance of the Portuguese mainland hotel industry. For that purpose, we implement a novel empirical approach to gauge the impact of the pandemic during the 2020-2021 period in terms of the industry's aggregated operating revenues, net total assets, net total debt, generated cash flow, and financial slack. To that end, we derive and estimate a sustainable growth model to project the 2020 and 2021 'Covid-free' aggregated financial statements of a representative Portuguese mainland hotel industry sample. The impact of the Covid pandemic is measured by the difference between the 'Covid-free' financial statements and the historical data drawn from the Orbis and Sabi databases. An MC simulation with bootstrapping indicates that the deviations of the deterministic from the stochastic estimates for major indicators vary between 0.5 and 5.5%. The deterministic operating cash flow estimate lies within plus or minus two standard deviations from the mean interval of the operating cash flow distribution. Based on this distribution, we estimate the downside risk, measured by cash flow at risk, at 1294 million euros. Overall findings shed some light on the economic and financial repercussions of extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, providing us with a better understanding of how to design public policies and business strategies to recover from such an impact.

South African government palliative funds for SMMEs during COVID-19: challenges of implementation and suggestions for improvement

Purpose: The implementation of the lockdown on 28th March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted business and economic activities completely, which has serious consequences for SMME survival in South Africa and the world at large. Subsequently, there was a contingent need to provide funding to SMMEs to ensure their survival. This study, therefore, explored the meaning of SMME in the South African context and their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study further investigated the palliative funds given to SMMEs during COVID-19 by the South African government, the challenges encountered during its implementation process, and the measures to improve the funding implementation. Methodology: The study adopted a qualitative research approach with an exploratory research design, and this enhanced in-depth findings through the adoption of interviews as the only source of primary data collection. Data collected from the participants were analyzed using a thematic analytical technique with the help of Atlas-ti software (Version 22). Findings: Findings obtained from the study revealed that SMMEs are separate and distinct business entities, including co-operatives and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), managed by one or more owners, including their branches and subsidiaries. Another finding revealed that during the COVID-19 period, SMMEs experienced supply chain disruptions, inventory shortages, cash flow issues, and low income due to the inability to engage in active business. In the empirical study, participants attested that the scoring system, lack of business and managerial experience, communication barriers, and business registration requirements are some of the challenges encountered in funding implementation by the government departments. Furthermore, the participants highlighted that funding based on merit, consideration of the scoring system, and the application of communication dynamics to reach SMMEs should be applied to improve SMME funding implementation. Originality/Value: This study is meant to inform the government on how to handle SMME funding and measures to assist them to enhance employment and to improve economic development.

ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA - ANALYSIS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 2017-2021

Entrepreneurship is characterized by great uncertainty and great risk in business, and entrepreneurs are personally ready to take risks in their business at any moment, predict future events and adapt to constant changes and to the dynamic market. The aim of this work is to analyze business entities in the Republic of Croatia from 2017-2021. who are obliged to submit annual financial statements, in order to draw conclusions about the decline or increase in business activities during the observed period and whether revenues increased or decreased during the observed period from 2017 to 2021, whether the number of entrepreneurs increased, such as is the trend of net salaries and analysis of all other business indicators. The paper analyzes the data of companies that are obliged to submit annual financial statements to the Financial Agency. Three hypotheses are presented in the paper, H1: business entities in the observed period from 2017-2021 show a decline in all business activities and this hypothesis is accepted, H2: during the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of business entities and the number of employees decreased and this hypothesis is not accepted, H3: during the COVID-19 pandemic, the profits and revenues of companies are lower and this hypothesis is accepted. The research is based on up-to-date and accurate data from info.Biz, the e-service of the Financial Agency. Info.Biz collects accurate and up-to-date data from the financial reports of business entities, which business entities in the Republic of Croatia are obliged to submit to the Financial Agency every business year, according to the Accounting Act. On the basis of data from the info.Biz e-service, numerous conclusions can be drawn about economic indicators and business operations in the Republic of Croatia. Business entities obliged to submit annual financial reports in 2020 record a decline in all business activities and business results, while in 2021 they show a trend of growth in business indicators.

Evaluation of companies (Magazine Luiza SA) and investments in the E-commerce area during the Covid-19 pandemic period

In view of the economic impact and the changes in life habits caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil, the main objective of this article refers to the application of the fundamentalist valuation method of companies, called discounted cash flow, during the beginning, the course and the end of the pandemic period. The company in question is Magazine Luiza SA, given the positive variation in the value of the company's shares during this interval, as well as the investments made in digital transformation and the consequent significant increase in sales. The methodology adopted consists of collecting data disclosed by the company itself and, through the application of FCFF, performing the company's evaluation during the years 2019 to 2022, which characterized the duration of the pandemic, in addition to performing a projection based on the analysis performed until the year 2028. The analysis obtained showed slow and steady growth in the pre-pandemic period, that the initial pandemic period, between the years 2019 and 2020 represented for Magazine Luiza, contrary to what is expected for a retail company, a period of accelerated growth, which can be associated with the investments made for the digital transformation. Moreover, the projection obtained indicates, for the company, an initial crisis in the post-pandemic period, given the current political-economic environment. However, it presents trends for a recovery followed by subsequent accelerated growth. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Technium Social Sciences Journal is the property of Technium Press Constanta and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

COVID-19 impacts on the AEC industry with a focus on Africa

PurposeThe unexpected spread of COVID-19 rapidly switched from a health crisis to an economic one. The Architectural, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry experienced drastic impacts, especially in Africa. Several studies investigated COVID-19 impacts on the AEC industry, but very few were conducted in Africa. This study aims to cover this gap, address detailed overview of negative and positive impacts of COVID-19 on the AEC field, especially in the different African regions, and highlight their causes and the measures taken to overcome them.Design/methodology/approachThe authors combined a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses-based Systematic Literature Review (SLR) and a survey involving 87 AEC companies operating in Africa. The SLR initially used four scientific databases;however, considering the limited Africa-related found data, institutional and governmental databases were also included.FindingsGlobally, implementing the mandated restrictive measures against COVID-19 caused significant losses for developers, designers and contractors but helped the information and communication technologies operators to thrive. In the five African regions, the AEC industry experienced 22 heavy impacts that can be split into four categories: financial, managerial/strategic, operational and opportunities. This paper thoughtfully explains the causes of COVID-19 impacts and presents the undertaken measures by the African private and public sectors to overcome them. Generally, the African AEC industry lost 51% of the total sales in 2020.Originality/valueThis paper contains all aspects related to health hazard influences on the AEC industry, especially in Africa. Researchers and decision-makers may use it to build new approaches or strategies related to risk management or design technological solutions.

System dynamics modeling and robustness analysis for capital-constrained supply chain under disruption

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to explore mitigation measures for cash flow interruption during the epidemic and provide decision support to ensure the regular operation and robustness of the supply chain (SC).Design/methodology/approachConsidering the scenarios of production capacity and demand disruption during the epidemic, the authors adopt system dynamics (SD) to construct a three-echelon SC financial system consisting of a core manufacturer, a capital-constrained retailer and the customer. In different interruption scenarios, through the decision adjustments of stakeholders, the differences in performance are compared to explore solutions for SC robust optimization.FindingsThe results show that partial credit guarantee (PCG) could solve cash flow interruption and maintain the regular operation of the SC. During epidemic, with the product price increases, the revenue of stakeholders and the robustness are generally negatively correlated. But when the manufacturer's production capacity is fully interrupted, increasing product price is the right decision for the retailer and could simultaneously promote performance and robustness.Originality/valueThis paper primarily focuses on the PCG under the cash flow interruption caused by epidemics. The authors adopt the supply chain finance (SCF) theory and SD method to supplement and expand existing research on interruption management of SC. It is a pioneering study to explore the robustness of the SC financial system under disruptions.

Proceedings of the Society for the Promotion of Roman Studies 2019–2020

Since the last AGM, Dr Lynn Pitts has retired from her role as Publications Officer. In the autumn, the Society had held a number of events, including a conference on Germanicus, a book launch for Peter Wiseman's House of Augustus and its annual conference at the British Museum with the Association for Roman Archaeology on ‘Roman Temples in Britain and Gaul: Recent Discoveries and Interpretations'. Since Christmas, before the COVID-19 pandemic put a stop to face-to-face events, the Society was pleased to welcome Professor Mireille Corbier to deliver the M.V. Taylor Lecture, and in March (just before the lockdown) we held a joint event with the Hellenic Society on the topic of ‘Animals in the Ancient World', with Malcolm Heath, Emily Kneebone and John Pearce. Without these two exceptional items, the Society's cash flow would have been a negative £43,000 rather than a positive £78,000. [...]the net gain on our investments, managed by Newton Investment Management, was £219,000 in 2019 (a gross return of 19%).

Interglobe Aviation Limited: The Valuation Conundrum

The case examines the valuation conundrum faced by the largest airline in terms of market share in the civil aviation industry in India. Indigo, a brand owned by Interglobe Aviation Limited, owned 47.2% of the total market share in India in 2019. The airline had done exceedingly well in terms of revenue growth. The share price also saw a meteoric rise from ₹1,000 to ₹1,800 in a short span of 4 years. Determining the intrinsic value of the airline's share became imperative against the backdrop of the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic. The global pandemic loomed large and seemed likely to disrupt the economy with a possible nationwide lockdown beginning in the last quarter of 2019–2020. All business activities were expected to come to a standstill. The airline industry was likely to be hit the worst, with economies across the globe restricting air travel (domestic and international). Valuation approaches such as discounted cash flow (DCF) technique and relative valuation multiples were employed to estimate the share's intrinsic value. The intrinsic value was compared with the current market price to assess whether the airline stock was undervalued or overvalued. Questions on whether the airline could sustain this valuation in the future also came up. Tim Rogers, a recruit with an investment banking firm, was entrusted with the responsibility of analysing and valuing Indigo Airlines and preparing a recommendation report. © 2023 Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Interglobe Aviation Limited: The Valuation Conundrum

The case examines the valuation conundrum faced by the largest airline in terms of market share in the civil aviation industry in India. Indigo, a brand owned by Interglobe Aviation Limited, owned 47.2% of the total market share in India in 2019. The airline had done exceedingly well in terms of revenue growth. The share price also saw a meteoric rise from ₹1,000 to ₹1,800 in a short span of 4 years. Determining the intrinsic value of the airline's share became imperative against the backdrop of the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic. The global pandemic loomed large and seemed likely to disrupt the economy with a possible nationwide lockdown beginning in the last quarter of 2019–2020. All business activities were expected to come to a standstill. The airline industry was likely to be hit the worst, with economies across the globe restricting air travel (domestic and international). Valuation approaches such as discounted cash flow (DCF) technique and relative valuation multiples were employed to estimate the share's intrinsic value. The intrinsic value was compared with the current market price to assess whether the airline stock was undervalued or overvalued. Questions on whether the airline could sustain this valuation in the future also came up. Tim Rogers, a recruit with an investment banking firm, was entrusted with the responsibility of analysing and valuing Indigo Airlines and preparing a recommendation report. © 2023 Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Impact Of The COVID-19 Outbreak On World Trade in Goods And Services: A Structural Break Analysis

2019 yılı Kasım ayında Çin'in Wuhan kentinde COVID-19 pandemisi başlamıştır. Salgının yayılmasını önlemek için birçok ülke sokaǧa çıkma yasakları vb. tedbirler uygulamaya koymuştur. Uygulanan tedbirler nedeniyle dünya genelinde ekonomik faaliyetler durma noktasına gelmiştir. Salgın mal ve hizmet ticaretine de zarar vermiştir. Çalışma, dünya mal ve hizmet ticaretinin salgından nasıl etkilendiǧini analiz etmekte ve literatüre katkıda bulunmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, Dünya ticaret ve seyahat deǧişkenlerinde 2020:03, devlet hizmetlerinde 2020:04, toplam hizmetlerde 2020:05, ulaşımda 2020:02, mal baǧlantılı hizmetlerde 2019:12 ve diǧer ticari hizmetlerde 2020:06 dönemlerinde kırılma olduǧu belirlenmiştir. Yapısal deǧişim analizleri, mal ticaretinin kısa sürede pandemi öncesi düzeyine döndüǧünü göstermiş, ancak hizmetlerde toparlanmanın daha yavaş olduǧu gözlenmiştir.Alternate :COVID-19 pandemic has started in Wuhan, China in November 2019. To prevent the spread of the pandemic, curfews, etc. measures have been implemented in many countries. Due to the measures implemented, economic activities around the world have come to a standstill. The pandemic also harmed the goods and services trade. The study analyzes how the World goods and services trade affected by the pandemic and to contribute to the literature. As a result, it was determined that there was a break in World Trade and travel variables in 2020:03, government services 2020:04, total services 2020:05, transportation 2020:02, goods-related services 2019:12 and other commercial services 2020:06. Structural change analyses showed that goods trade soon returned to its pre-pandemic level;but it was observed that the recovery in services was slow.

The Impact of Online Sales on Recovery from COVID-19

The massive spread of the COVID-19 outbreak has widely disrupted business activities around the world. In such a context, more manufacturing enterprises have to turn to online sales to restore sales and workforce. However, the actual effects of above relationships are still unknown. The aim of this study is to analyze whether and how online sales affect sales and workforce recovery from COVID-19. Meanwhile, we deeply explore the mediating effect of cash flow adequacy and the moderating effect of firm size. Drawing from a cross-country survey with 2714 manufacturing enterprises during the COVID-19 pandemic and controlling for self-selection bias, we find an inverted U-shaped effect of online sales on sales and workforce recovery. Online sales also exert an inverted U-shaped effect on cash flow adequacy, whereas this effect is weaker for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Furthermore, cash flow adequacy positively facilitates sales and workforce recovery, indicating the role of cash flow adequacy in partially mediating the relationship between online sales and recovery. In addition, we confirm that firm size moderates the indirect effect of online sales on sales and workforce recovery through cash flow adequacy. This study not only expands e-commerce and emergency management research domain and enriches the results of related research, but also provides management implications for the recovery of manufacturing enterprises from the perspective of online sales during the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2022, Kauno Technologijos Universitetas. All rights reserved.

Cash Flow and External Financing in the Covid Pandemic Context and Financial Constraints

The article examines the impact of cash flow on the need to increase funding in the Covid pandemic context and the financial constraints of listed companies in Vietnam. We build hypotheses based on the self-ranking match theory framework and research overview. We use data from 5894 observations for 2010-2020 and the general regression model GLS to test the expected hypotheses. The research results show that cash flow significantly influences the external financing needs of the business. In particular, the cash flow impact and increased need for external financing are more evident in financial constraints and the context of the covid pandemic. The study also shows that the group of companies with financial constraints moved to increase funding when cash flow was in short supply during the Covid pandemic. Besides, the high financial leverage ratio in the previous year can be one of the barriers for businesses that want to access a variety of external financing. The study contributes to the analysis and assessment of the problematic situation of listed companies. In the future, this study can be extended when approaching businesses in the financial sector and evaluating other macro factors that can affect the capital sources of enterprises.

COVID-19, firm characteristics and stock volatility: new evidence from the Indian tourism sector

Purpose This paper provides new evidence on Indian tourism firms by investigating the role of a firm's financial conditions typified by its leverage, earnings, size, cash holdings, and excess cash in moderating the pandemic-led idiosyncratic volatility in its stock prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ a firm-level panel comprising 82 publicly-listed tourism firms from India. Firm risk is estimated for the period beginning January 2020 to December 2020. Findings This paper finds non-linear effects of the pandemic on the idiosyncratic risk of the sample firms. Precisely, stock price volatility rises, but as the market absorbs this information, volatility subsides even as the disease spreads further. Further, lower levels of past debt and earnings and higher cash holdings ameliorate the pandemic's effects on tourism firms' risk. Contrasting the view that "excess" cash reflects poor operational performance, we show that "excess" cash firms are better prepared to face the adverse effects of the pandemic. Research limitations/implications This study's sample period fully encompasses the first wave of the pandemic (January-December 2020) of the novel coronavirus infection spread. Originality/value To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to assess the moderating effects of company fundamentals on the risk of Indian tourism firms. In doing so, the authors account for non-linear effects of the pandemic on firms' idiosyncratic volatility over time.

Stock returns, oil prices and leverage: evidence from US firms

Purpose>This paper aims to investigate how the relation between stock returns of US firms and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices is affected by leverage from 1990 to 2020.Design/methodology/approach>This paper examines how the relationship between stock returns of US firms and WTI oil prices is affected by leverage from 1990 to 2020 using a fixed-effect model estimation framework.Findings>Results from the fixed-effect regression models suggest that leverage effects on stock returns are pervasive both in aggregate and cross-industry levels, while the mining industry is more sensitive. In addition to the positive oil price effects attenuated by leverage at the aggregate level, the authors observe stronger marginal effects of leverage only for the mining sector. Being more exposed to commodity prices, the positive effects of oil prices on stock returns in the mining sector are offset by large debt ratios. Asymmetries, effects of debt maturity structure and implications are also discussed.Research limitations/implications>This study is grounded on the contemporary cash flow claim of leverage NOT on the long-run effect of leverage considering cash flow constraints. The oil price increase is assumed to represent an advancement of the overall economy. This study does not capture the oil prices response to some other economic forces and vice-versa.Practical implications>Mining companies should therefore reduce the stock of debt with respect to their assets to make possible the “pass-through” from oil prices to the stock market.Originality/value>Previously undocumented and the authors show that leverage reduces the total effect of oil prices on stock returns, consistent with the hypothesis. Asymmetric and debt maturity structures effects are also discussed.